What’s really going on with inflation? Financial analytics
Why did she decide to slow down, and is everything going according to the plan of the Central Bank? what’s really going on with inflation?
A small digression
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At the moment, the value of the official, Rosstat, inflation has reached 17.62%. The old inflation target of 4% and March inflation values hang on the Central Bank website. I think it’s time for the Central Bank to update the whole thing.
According to the estimates of the Central Bank itself and other experts, Russia will return to the target of 4% in 2024 at best. Why did inflation slow down? Although inflation has reached multi-year records, it has indeed slowed down.
In February-March, price growth was around 0.7% per week, and now it looms around 0.2%. Since the beginning of 2022, inflation has exceeded 11%.
In the results of 2021, I said that high inflation has two sides: monetary (1/3) and non-monetary (2/3).
The monetary side of inflation was explained by low interest rates on loans and high consumer activity.
The non-monetary side was explained by post-COVID restrictions, broken supply chains, and inflation brought in with imported goods.
Non-monetary indicators turned out to be the most significant, which the Central Bank could not influence by targeting.
The situation today has not changed at all. Rather, on the contrary – inflation “pressed the slipper on the floor” because of non-monetary signs.
Sanctions and the subsequent fall of the ruble did their job.
At a time when imports had not yet begun to decline, goods became even more expensive for us due to the exchange rate and imported inflation.
What do we have now The Central Bank and government decrees in the spirit of paying for gas in rubles strengthened the exchange rate and partially made it manual.
The ruble is no longer considered a freely convertible currency. Then the import of goods was greatly reduced, which also had a positive effect on the exchange rate. And the inflation of these goods did not come to our country.
A sharp change in the key rate to 20% created a shock in the Russian financial market. The speed of circulation of money and consumption began to decrease.
This monetary factor influenced the slowdown in inflation.
Inflation does indeed have deterrent and deceleration factors. Another question is how high the rate will be enough to bring down the monetary factor?
And how long will the import compression take?
We will be watching this in the coming months.
The inflation rate in Greece in April jumped to the highest level in 28 years and amounted to 10.2%.
Natural gas prices soared 122.6% year-on-year, while electricity prices rose 88.8%, ELsat said
Starting next week and gradually until mid-June, Greece is expected to increase the prices of more than 300 consumer products, leading to a financial impasse for thousands of vulnerable households.
The price increase list includes the following products:
– Sunflower oil 50%,
– paper products 15% -25%,
– margarines 20%,
– olive oil 20%,
– corn oil 10% -18%,
– croissants 9% -20%,
– cheese 4% -17%,
– bread 8%,
– Greek coffee 13%,
– ready meals 5% -13%,
– freshly squeezed juices and tea 2.5-12%, – frozen potatoes 10%,
– milk 5% -9%,
— biscuits 8%,
– detergents 5% -8%,
– yogurt 6% -7%,
– butter 5% -6%,
– salads 6%,
– shampoo 6%,
– wines 4% – 6%,
– chickpeas 5%,
– salt 5%,
– canned food 5%,
– cereals 5%,
– eggs on average 4.5%,
– nuts 4.5%
– cream 1.5%
According to the basic economic forecast of the Bank of Russia, next year inflation will approach the target value, but the economy will stagnate.
• The Bank of Russia expects GDP to fall by 8-10% in 2022.
• According to the Bank of Russia, the economy will go most of the way of adaptation by the middle of 2023 – new economic ties and sales markets will be formed, there will be groundwork for localization of production.
Leading economic and political commentator. Editor-in-chief of the online magazine Realize a Dream. Alexey Ponomarenko
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